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I wonder if there’s a meaningful way to factor in the oft mentioned “protest vote”. Act in 2020 when the National leadership was a shambles, and potentially the Greens this last election given Labour’s woes. I suppose it’s impossible. Not enough data. Too vague a premise. But it sure would be interesting to think about “cost of acquiring a non-party faithful”, cost of “flipping a blue to red (etc.)”, cost of maintaining party loyal vote, cost of preventing defection within one’s own block (left/right). Especially with the Greens wanting to be the premiere left wing party, it’ll be all the more important.

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