Thanks Chris: clarity, as usual. As I've written elsewhere, I'm 76, have a higher degree, been a research scientist and lecturer and have voted Labour all my life - until the last election, that is. Never again, unless there's a move away from identity politics and critical theory ideology and back more to what used to be considered Labour's core values, which means actually listening to their constituency.
"Ardern, while no intellectual, was a superb communicator who seemed to pass through history without touching the sides."
That, Chris, is a near perfect sentence. I couldn't quite put my words on the huge contradictions in Ardern's time at the top - so much and so little at the same time. Personally I liked her, politically she seemed the most lightweight and populist of PMs.
"Passing through history without touching the sides" indeed. History happened to her, she was just reactive.
There is also a saying I was taught, for managers and teachers and 'leaders': "Take the blame; share the acclaim". My impression is Ardern preferred it in reverse - the fanfare was hers, the faults always lay elsewhere.
"Dr West: Labour"................ will only tax labour"
We've a very broad range of taxes. The big ones: consumption tax (GST), excise tax, income tax (which includes tax on interest received and profits) and company tax - the second highest company tax take (as a percentage of GDP) in the developed world according to Michael Reddell. https://croakingcassandra.com/2019/09/17/
Taxing capital (private assets?) is a fool of an idea - especially for an economy that's already capital constrained with very weak productivity growth as a consequence.
The neo-liberal indoctrination of us Kiwis appears to have been successful and thorough, as evident when the majority seem to believe such wilful misinformation.
In the real world, it is the opposite. Those nations that tax capital the most have the highest productivity since they spend that money to invest in the economy through infrastructure, health services, education and other means that stimulate the economy.
Meanwhile, the rest of our taxes are either regressive (GST) or relatively flat with no exclusion for the bottom end and a low high end - hitting the middle class and poor more than most other OECD nations, creating resentment.
Our productivity is in the middle of the road according to OECD statistics, not great but not as terrible as some make out. In reality, those nations that tax capital the most – Norway, Denmark and France have higher productivity indicators than we do. Indeed, all OECD nations except us tax capital more than we do including the USA- through capital gains taxes, land taxes, and wealth taxes. (NZ when once a just nation had land taxes.) And we are 25th per capita in the OECD for spending according to OECD charts. And it shows with very high homeless rates and health and education declines. (see https://www.oecd.org/)
The misinformation apocalypse beginning with Bannon and Trump’s lies, then segueing to Ukraine, the vaccine, so-called “wokeness” and climate change denial (or whatever the new 2023-24 version is) have become wedge instruments by the far right to distract us.
I don’t think that Helen Clark, as great as she was, would have done anything different in government than Jacinda. Clark vocally supported Jacinda’s policies until the end - social and economic. Indeed, the last Labour government introduced the unthinkable, a short-term capital gains tax called an extension of the bright line w/o deductions while increasing income tax thresholds. Labour’s polling advanced last March- May so that the Greens, Maori Party and Labour we leading in the polls - until the media started to focus heavily on “excessive spending” and inflation. Then the media focused on the bevy of petty “scandals” by ministers, fake tax cuts for the “squeezed middle” were promised and supposed “out of control crime” took over the news cycles.
It was just beginning to be rectified before the left coalition was sabotaged by a limpid media.
BTW...Chirs, have you read the book “Liberating Theory”? https://www.amazon.com/Liberating-Theory-Michael-Albert/dp/0896083063. It was an an essential book from the 80’s co-written by Michael Albert , Holly Sklar , Leslie Cagan , Noam Chomsky , Robin Hahnel , Mel King , and Lydia Sargen. Most were from a Marxist or libertarian left (anarchist) perspective. They suggested that we all need to be more inclusive of all oppression, not just class in including fighting social and environmental “oppression”. Class and power were of course essential, but so were race, patriarchy, and the environment. In the 90’s when the PC debate was raging, some people noticed that everyone are against PC. They suggested that with hundreds of articles from the liberal left and right slamming the media-driven perception that Political Correctness has invaded every corner of society. If it was accepted everywhere then why were everyone against it? Race, class, sexual identity, and the environment had made great strides so people had made up a scary scenario of PC taking over everything.
Political Correctness of course is simply the old name for the new boogieman, “wokeness”. Since the 90’s we have had more social and environmental advances that have in particular terrorized older white men (like myself). Meanwhile, economic oppression has in some sense returned to pre-Great Depression levels.
The irony of the last election is that by not having policies that would be right for the country as a whole and by sticking with Chippy's bonfire approach to keep what the middle NZ focus groups wanted, they still LOST!!!!
Until the Wellington based policy group wake up, Labour will continue to see their voters drift away. The level of inequality is now so great and so entrenched that younger people are turned off from voting. As older members leave or, pardon me for saying it, die off. Who is going to vote Labour? The coalition of chaos will continue to wave the 'tax cuts' banner for all they are worth and people will fall for it. Meanwhile, our infrastructure rots, public money will continue to flow to private business, public services will continue to fail or be privatised.
As for the Treaty, by driving a constant state of polarisation, this government can blame Maori and avoid any responsibility for deteriorating race relations which will please their right-wing Atlas Network donors no end.
A big divergence in party allegiance is also apparent (and growing) between the sexes, men are much more likely to vote for right wing parties; women for the left - even if they don't even know what a woman is.
There's also a perception that the left are anti European and anti men/masculinity in general. Sometimes they even say out loud what they're really thinking. Looking at you Marama.
People don't tend to vote for people that hate them, strangely enough.
Thanks Chris: clarity, as usual. As I've written elsewhere, I'm 76, have a higher degree, been a research scientist and lecturer and have voted Labour all my life - until the last election, that is. Never again, unless there's a move away from identity politics and critical theory ideology and back more to what used to be considered Labour's core values, which means actually listening to their constituency.
Masterly analysis. Thank you Chris.
"Ardern, while no intellectual, was a superb communicator who seemed to pass through history without touching the sides."
That, Chris, is a near perfect sentence. I couldn't quite put my words on the huge contradictions in Ardern's time at the top - so much and so little at the same time. Personally I liked her, politically she seemed the most lightweight and populist of PMs.
"Passing through history without touching the sides" indeed. History happened to her, she was just reactive.
There is also a saying I was taught, for managers and teachers and 'leaders': "Take the blame; share the acclaim". My impression is Ardern preferred it in reverse - the fanfare was hers, the faults always lay elsewhere.
Labour will only find its way when it taxes capital. For the moment it will only tax labour and should be called The Capitalists Party.
"Dr West: Labour"................ will only tax labour"
We've a very broad range of taxes. The big ones: consumption tax (GST), excise tax, income tax (which includes tax on interest received and profits) and company tax - the second highest company tax take (as a percentage of GDP) in the developed world according to Michael Reddell. https://croakingcassandra.com/2019/09/17/
Taxing capital (private assets?) is a fool of an idea - especially for an economy that's already capital constrained with very weak productivity growth as a consequence.
The neo-liberal indoctrination of us Kiwis appears to have been successful and thorough, as evident when the majority seem to believe such wilful misinformation.
In the real world, it is the opposite. Those nations that tax capital the most have the highest productivity since they spend that money to invest in the economy through infrastructure, health services, education and other means that stimulate the economy.
Meanwhile, the rest of our taxes are either regressive (GST) or relatively flat with no exclusion for the bottom end and a low high end - hitting the middle class and poor more than most other OECD nations, creating resentment.
Our productivity is in the middle of the road according to OECD statistics, not great but not as terrible as some make out. In reality, those nations that tax capital the most – Norway, Denmark and France have higher productivity indicators than we do. Indeed, all OECD nations except us tax capital more than we do including the USA- through capital gains taxes, land taxes, and wealth taxes. (NZ when once a just nation had land taxes.) And we are 25th per capita in the OECD for spending according to OECD charts. And it shows with very high homeless rates and health and education declines. (see https://www.oecd.org/)
Hardly a left move though still. Labour certainly did not do anything for women or children.
The misinformation apocalypse beginning with Bannon and Trump’s lies, then segueing to Ukraine, the vaccine, so-called “wokeness” and climate change denial (or whatever the new 2023-24 version is) have become wedge instruments by the far right to distract us.
I don’t think that Helen Clark, as great as she was, would have done anything different in government than Jacinda. Clark vocally supported Jacinda’s policies until the end - social and economic. Indeed, the last Labour government introduced the unthinkable, a short-term capital gains tax called an extension of the bright line w/o deductions while increasing income tax thresholds. Labour’s polling advanced last March- May so that the Greens, Maori Party and Labour we leading in the polls - until the media started to focus heavily on “excessive spending” and inflation. Then the media focused on the bevy of petty “scandals” by ministers, fake tax cuts for the “squeezed middle” were promised and supposed “out of control crime” took over the news cycles.
Our economic woes have little to do with spending. It should be noted that according to Krugman of the NYT, the USA who spent more per capita and now has an economy growing among the fastest in the world with low inflation. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/opinion/europe-economy-problems-policy.html Those European nation who have spent the most (and with more thorough regulations) are growing the fastest and have the lowest inflation such as Spain or Denmark. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/03/spain-inflation-lower-bank-england-interest-rates?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Remember after the neo-lib revolution we are still in a nation that is 25th in the OECD for spending pre capita. Just ahead of Turkey and Mexico with obvious fall-out such as one of the highest homelessness rates in the world. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/6c445a59-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/6c445a59-en
It was just beginning to be rectified before the left coalition was sabotaged by a limpid media.
BTW...Chirs, have you read the book “Liberating Theory”? https://www.amazon.com/Liberating-Theory-Michael-Albert/dp/0896083063. It was an an essential book from the 80’s co-written by Michael Albert , Holly Sklar , Leslie Cagan , Noam Chomsky , Robin Hahnel , Mel King , and Lydia Sargen. Most were from a Marxist or libertarian left (anarchist) perspective. They suggested that we all need to be more inclusive of all oppression, not just class in including fighting social and environmental “oppression”. Class and power were of course essential, but so were race, patriarchy, and the environment. In the 90’s when the PC debate was raging, some people noticed that everyone are against PC. They suggested that with hundreds of articles from the liberal left and right slamming the media-driven perception that Political Correctness has invaded every corner of society. If it was accepted everywhere then why were everyone against it? Race, class, sexual identity, and the environment had made great strides so people had made up a scary scenario of PC taking over everything.
Political Correctness of course is simply the old name for the new boogieman, “wokeness”. Since the 90’s we have had more social and environmental advances that have in particular terrorized older white men (like myself). Meanwhile, economic oppression has in some sense returned to pre-Great Depression levels.
The irony of the last election is that by not having policies that would be right for the country as a whole and by sticking with Chippy's bonfire approach to keep what the middle NZ focus groups wanted, they still LOST!!!!
Until the Wellington based policy group wake up, Labour will continue to see their voters drift away. The level of inequality is now so great and so entrenched that younger people are turned off from voting. As older members leave or, pardon me for saying it, die off. Who is going to vote Labour? The coalition of chaos will continue to wave the 'tax cuts' banner for all they are worth and people will fall for it. Meanwhile, our infrastructure rots, public money will continue to flow to private business, public services will continue to fail or be privatised.
As for the Treaty, by driving a constant state of polarisation, this government can blame Maori and avoid any responsibility for deteriorating race relations which will please their right-wing Atlas Network donors no end.
A big divergence in party allegiance is also apparent (and growing) between the sexes, men are much more likely to vote for right wing parties; women for the left - even if they don't even know what a woman is.
There's also a perception that the left are anti European and anti men/masculinity in general. Sometimes they even say out loud what they're really thinking. Looking at you Marama.
People don't tend to vote for people that hate them, strangely enough.