NZ Politics Daily - 24 January 2024

Top 10 “NZ Politics Daily” stories today

Below are some of the more interesting and insightful New Zealand politics items from the weekend and this morning.

1) The Government has announced it is sending a military contingent to assist the US-led operations in the Middle East against the Houthi rebels. And unlike many similar defence deployments in the past, this doesn’t have bipartisan support, with the Opposition strongly disagreeing with it – see Katie Scotcher and Anneke Smith’s NZDF deployment to Red Sea has 'shades of Iraq', Labour says

This article also quotes security and foreign affairs academics who challenge the decision to deploy. For example, the article says: “Otago University international relations professor Robert Patman also said the deployment could be interpreted as New Zealand shifting its weight behind the United States. It contradicts New Zealand's voting record in the UN general assembly, Patman said, having twice supported calls for an immediate humanitarian truce or ceasefire in Gaza.”

2) The Democracy Project’s Geoffrey Miller provides his analysis today. And here’s his conclusion: “It is hard to overstate the significance of New Zealand’s new military deployment to the Middle East. The troop numbers are small – but the potential ramifications are enormous. Wellington is drawing a line in the sand. And it could be the beginning of the end for New Zealand’s independent foreign policy” – see: New Zealand’s huge shift in the Middle East

3) With the National Party and NZ First’s announcements that they are unlikely to support Act’s Treaty Principles Bill beyond going to a select committee, the Herald’s Derek Cheng explains today that the bill is going through an unusual but futile process – see: Treaty of Waitangi principles bill appears to be dead before it’s even written (paywalled)

Here’s the key part of Cheng’s analysis: “Usually the public gets to have a say on a bill during the select committee stage, and the committee then releases a report with any recommended changes, along with whether the bill should proceed. Politicians then reconsider their stance on the bill; it’s not uncommon for the process to unearth something they were previously unaware of. So, yes, killing the bill before that process has even started seems somewhat premature, especially if the killers are also some of the initial backers.”

He explains David Seymour’s strategy: “The Act leader wants the national conversation - facilitated by the committee - to convince both National and NZ First of the merits of the referendum that the bill is a precursor for, especially if public sentiment is forcefully in favour of one. And even if that doesn’t happen, he’s hoping that his idea of what the principles should be in contemporary New Zealand will resonate enough to consolidate Act’s share of electorate support - or even expand it – regardless of how repugnant it may be to Māoridom.”

4) Although in the public debate most academics seem resolutely opposed to defining the Principles of the Treaty, political scientist Grant Duncan writes today in favour of the exercise in principle, if not the exact formulation that Seymour has come up with. He argues that the current principles, as vague as they are, come from a judicial interpretation of the Treaty, and these could do with being clarified by public debate – see: Seymour trumps Luxon with Treaty card

Duncan parodies those who say the Treaty principles are already clear: “Lots of people on social media, however, are evidently sure that they already know what the principles of the Treaty are. They say it’s all in te Tiriti, or it’s been sorted out in the courts, or it’s all in the heads of ‘experts’. If you don’t already get it, then apparently you need to be ‘educated’.”

Here's Duncan’s conclusion that the principles could be decided upon without resorting to a referendum: “Eventually the select committee should produce a report. But political leaders across the House look unlikely to negotiate – even in broad terms – any wording that would settle a matter that’s divided the country for so long. There are, at least, some points that all parties seem to agree on: the Treaty is a founding document in the country’s constitutional history; it forms a basis for compensation for past injustices. Beginning with those points of consensus, the political parties could devise a general framework of ‘principles’ that would work for a majority of Māori and of non-Māori – and even be passed into law. I believe it can be done, and that we’re underestimating ourselves if we insist it’s impossible. But, given the worsening polarisation, it’s very unlikely to happen for the time being. Instead, expect more trouble.”

5) Expect to see more protest against the Government’s exercise to clarify the principles. In the Far North, Ngāti Kahu representative Wikatana Popata is announced that his iwi will physically prevent the annual Doubtless Bay Fishing contest from going ahead this weekend, “in response to the Government’s proposal to abolish Te Tiriti O Waitangi” and because the event organisers haven’t “didn’t bother” to consult the iwi – see Avneesh Vincent’s Doubtless Bay Fishing contest and auction to go ahead despite Far North iwi opposition

According to this news report, the contest which has been going for 40 years and is apparently “licensed by the Ministry of Primary Industry” will be blocked: “Popata said all boat ramps and beach access points in the area would be blocked off by iwi to stop the contest from happening in their ‘tribal territory.’ ‘Their ignorance is a form of racism that we have been dealing with for a long time. They forget that we are the mana and the authority over all our lands and waters’.” Notably, however, Ngāti Kahu chairwoman Margaret Mutu disputes that the iwi are in agreement on this.

6) Back in 2020 a boat exporting sheep from New Zealand sank, resulting in the deaths of 41 crew and nearly 6000 cattle. The Government then implemented a ban on live animal shipments by sea. The National Government has been lobbied to overturn that ban, which it says it will do this term. But RNZ investigative journalist Guyon Espiner has discovered that the lobby group Livestock Export New Zealand (LENZ) is raising money in order to make sure the Government follows through – see: The $1m PR and lobbying campaign to overturn livestock export ban

Here’s the key detail: “A LENZ strategy document says it needs $1 million to ensure the ban is reversed. The document says LENZ will spend $366,000 on a ‘trust and understanding’ campaign, $100,000 on media training advocates and nearly $200,000 creating a ‘gold standard’ for animal welfare. LENZ says it will also spend $160,000 on ‘political lobbying and legal fees’. The document shows LENZ is on a fundraising drive and says financial contributions ranging between $2000 and $50,000 have already been received from vets, trucking companies and farmers.”

7) The $19bn Wage Subsidy Scheme is in the spotlight again, with further questions about how well the Ministry of Social Development has managed the mass distribution of money to businesses during the pandemic. Journalist David Williams has uncovered more evidence to suggest that the government department responsible for administering the scheme has been less than rigourous in dealing with evaluations and integrity checking – see ‘Lackadaisical’ response to wage subsidy super-review

It turns out that MSD commissioned Deloitte to look at how well the historic and ongoing administration and reviews of Wage Subsidy Scheme, but its recommendations appear to have been largely ignored. University of Canterbury tax researcher Dr Michael Gousmett sums up MSD’s approach to lessons that were being highlighted in official reviews: “let’s move on and forget about what might have gone wrong.” Signs that the scheme had been rorted complaints about “huge wealth transfer to corporate New Zealand” appear to be put in the too-hard basket. However, given the new Government is promising “a full scale, wide-ranging, independent inquiry” into how Covid was handled, there’s hope that the truth will come out about whether the billions spent on businesses that didn’t need it could have been better managed.

8) Yesterday, the Herald’s Simon Wilson came up with a “code of behaviour” for political debate: “Don’t gender your criticism; Don’t call anyone cockroaches, vermin or animals of any kind. They’re people; Don’t talk about killing or harming others. Even as a joke; Call out bad behaviour. Maybe do it with humour” – see: Golriz Ghahraman shoplifting allegations: Empathy, accountability and abuse (paywalled)

9) Today, political commentator Liam Hehir has come up with The one thing missing from Simon Wilson's column (paywalled). Hehir argues that although he agrees with Wilson’s list, the most crucial way to deal with increasingly toxic political debate is police the bad behaviour of your own side or political tribe, rather than concentrating on policing your opponents: “There is often a reluctance to condemn abuse hurled at adversaries with the same fervour as that reserved for defending allies. This selectivity does not always manifest itself in an actual defence of the abuse. Silence can speak volumes. All too frequently the champions of civility are simply missing in action when the abuser has aimed at the right target. The social enforcement of good behaviour is all about peer pressure. Left-leaning journalists, for instance, have little influence over right-wing trolls. The words of right-wing commentators fall on deaf ears when addressed to left-wing trolls. Yet the language of reproof can make a difference when aimed within one’s own ranks.”

10) TVNZ’s National Correspondent has “set himself the task of leading the Resistance” to the new conservative government according to veteran journalist Karl du Fresne. He argues that such partisan and advocacy journalism is a big problem for a state broadcaster – see: The John Campbell question

Dr Bryce Edwards

Political Analyst in Residence, Democracy Project, School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington

NZ Politics Daily - 24 January 2024

TREATY, RĀTANA
Jo Moir (Newsroom): Compromise the overwhelming theme for coalition
Derek Cheng (Herald): Treaty of Waitangi principles bill appears to be dead before it’s even written (paywalled)
Gordon Campbell (Werewolf): On Treaty principles, and Nikki Haley’s false dawn
RNZ: Luxon says position on Treaty bill clear, but doesn't unequivocally rule it out
Alice Wilkins (Newshub): Prime Minister Christopher Luxon not ruling out voting for Treaty Principles Bill at second reading
Dominic O’Sullivan (The Conversation): Waitangi 2024: how the Treaty strengthens democracy and provides a check on unbridled power
Willie Jackson (Herald): New Zealand has nothing to fear from the Treaty and everything to fear from Act
Rob Campbell (Newsroom): Scare tactics won’t stop defence of established rights
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Christopher Luxon ventures to Rātana as pressure builds on Government over Treaty issues
Adam Pearse (Herald): Prime Minister Christopher Luxon expecting strong challenges from Māori at Rātana
Stewart Sowman-Lund (Spinoff): Luxon walks a race relations tightrope as he heads to Rātana
Bridie Witton (Stuff): Prime Minister walks tightrope on Treaty of Waitangi issues
Anna Whyte (Post): Politicians head to Rātana, under cloud of ACT’s treaty bill (paywalled)
Jessica Tyson (Whakaata Māori): Kīngitanga arrives at Rātana with a clear message for coalition govt: ‘Work with us or get out of our way’
Moana Ellis (Local Democracy Reporting): Governments change, Māori are the constant – iwi leader
Felix Desmarais (1News): Rātana Pā rep on Seymour's absence: 'Not going to be missed'
RNZ: 'Ridiculous': Luxon rejects accusations of 'white supremacist' approach
Denise Piper (Northern Advocate): Waitangi Day hīkoi promises a fight for Te Tiriti o Waitangi
Tommy de Silva (Spinoff): This week’s hui at Rātana pā explained
Pokere Paewai (RNZ): Rātana celebrations begin, discussions from Hui aa Motu expected to continue
Merewai Durutalo (Whakaata Māori): Second important Māori event of the year attracts thousands of mōrehu to Rātana
Moana Ellis (Local Democracy Reporting): Rangitīkei, Whanganui councils send strong message of support at Rātana
Alakihihifo Vailala (Whakaata Māori): Diplomat commemorates European kingdom’s ties with Māori at Rātana

FOREIGN AFFAIRS, DEFENCE, TRADE
Geoffrey Miller (Democracy Project): New Zealand’s huge shift in the Middle East
Katie Scotcher and Anneke Smith (RNZ): NZDF mission in Red Sea has 'shades of Iraq' - Labour
Sam Sachdeva (Newsroom): Luxon moves NZ in ‘lockstep’ on Red Sea
Thomas Coughlan (Herald): Labour, Greens warn of escalating risks as Government deploys military to Red Sea
Asia Pacific Report: NZ foreign policy critics warn over ‘inflaming’ Red Sea crisis, call for Gaza ceasefire
Mick Hall: 'A frightening precedent’: New Zealand to send military personnel to target Houthis
Steven Cowan: New Zealand: A faithful servant of the United States
Jenna Lynch (Newshub): How NZ Defence Force will contribute in Middle East amid Houthi strikes
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): New Zealand sends Defence Force team to Middle East amid Houthi attacks in Red Sea
Dan Brunskill (Interest): Six Kiwi soldiers will help target airstrikes against Houthi forces threatening key shipping route in the Middle East
Brent Edwards (NBR): NZ military deployment to help target Houthi targets in Yemen (paywalled)
Alexander Gillespie (The Conversation): From the Middle East to the South China Sea: NZ’s new government inherits a defence dilemma
RNZ: Helen Clark: 'The world has some grim realities right now’
Nona Pelletier (RNZ): Business group urges government to focus on existing trade agreements

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