Top Ten “NZ Politics Daily” stories today
Below are some of the more interesting and insightful New Zealand politics items from the last 24 hours.
1) How much confidence can the public have that the $19bn that the government spent on the Wage Subsidy Scheme had integrity? Not much if you look at the processes used by the public service and private sector consultants to evaluate the policy and how it handed out the billions. A report has been released today that shows officials and consultants don’t appear to have had rigorous and trustworthy processes for insuring accountability, transparency, or preventing corruption – see David Williams’ Reviewer skewers report into $19b Covid subsidy scheme
The Ministry for Social Development, which implemented the $19bn cash handout for businesses, has been pressured by the Auditor General and others to carry out evaluations of the Wage Subsidy Scheme. However, they choose to use consultancies to do this, and one in particular, MartinJenkins has been found to have provided an apparently worthless review of the scheme. The evaluation has been dismissed by an expert as even worse than worthless, as it effectively appears to be a whitewash of major problems in the Wage Subsidy Scheme, and sets a precedent for poor research and evaluation work in the public service.
The consultancy MartinJenkins was employed by MSD for the crucial task of reviewing the scheme independently, despite the fact that this consultancy is seen to be too close to government agencies. The reviewer of their work, Simon Chapple, argues in the just-released report that the use of the MartinJenkins consultancy was a problem because it “has close links to the New Zealand public service via ongoing large-scale, and regular contracting out of a variety of policy advice and evaluation functions”. Furthermore, “It is unclear to me how MJ have successfully managed the risks of loss of independence in running this evaluation which arise out of their very close and long-standing relationship with the New Zealand public sector as a major client.”
In terms of the actual MartinJenkins evaluation of the Wage Subsidy Scheme, the review is extremely scathing, especially about its methodology, saying that the evaluation reached conclusions without “acceptable minimum evidential standards”, which “suggests a tendency to jump to predetermined conclusions in advance of the evidence.”
2) Corporate lobbyist and former Cabinet Minister Kris Faafoi has gone through yet another revolving door to become the chief lobbyist, or Chief Executive, for the Insurance Council of New Zealand – see the Herald’s Kris Faafoi’s new gig in $27 billion industry
Faafoi will represent some big money, that has much it needs to negotiate with the state about: “The private insurance sector had assets of about $27 billion in 2022, shared between 89 licensed insurers, according to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which regulates the sector.”
3) Despite all sorts of rumours about Golriz Ghahraman alleged shoplifting scandal doing the rounds, there haven’t been much further solid information published. The main addition to the story is the news that the MP has gone overeseas – see George Block and Raphael Franks’ Green MP Golriz Ghahraman overseas as police investigate shoplifting allegations at Ponsonby boutique
This article reports that the Greens chief communications adviser Danny Stevens said Ghahraman is “overseas on a personal trip that was planned many months ago”. The report also says: “police have confirmed they received a report of alleged shoplifting at Scotties Boutique on Blake St in Ponsonby on December 23.”
4) When a political integrity scandal strikes, is it best for politicians to front the news and rumours, or go to ground? Stuff’s Glenn McConnell reports that “Ghahraman has ignored multiple requests for comment, while the Green Party has told its members and MPs not to speak about the issue.” He has interviewed some political spin-doctors, who “say the party’s refusal to comment further has left too much ambiguity and room for speculation” – see: Golriz Ghahraman's political career in 'danger', experts say she should front up
Lobbyist Clint Smith, who used to work as a press secretary for the Greens (and Jacinda Ardern) says his former party needs to get their version of the facts out into the public asap: “What actually happened, why, and are there mitigating factors or explanations? The lack of clear answers fuels speculation, and people will often assume the worst.” Smith also draws attention to rumours of further allegations of shoplifting, saying “Ghahraman's political future depends on how she and the Greens handle this crisis and, crucially, whether there have been other incidents”.
5) Political commentary and practicing lawyer Liam Hehir points out today that Ghaharaman should be “presumed innocent until proven guilty” but discusses the practical ramifications of what might happen if it turned out the allegations were true – see his Patreon post, When lawmakers become lawbreakers (paywalled)
He says that it’s unlikely that the MP would be convicted of any crime, for a number of reasons. First, Police might decide not to proceed with the case. Prosecutorial discretion “allows prosecuting authorities to decide whether to pursue a case based on the available evidence, the seriousness of the offence, the public interest, and other factors”.
Second, Police might use “diversion”. Hehir explains that this is “typically aimed at first-time offenders, allowing them to accept responsibility for their offending through a process that involves the police eventually withdrawing the charges. outside the court system. The programme focuses on reparation and rehabilitation for the offender, who is then able to avoid having a criminal record. Former Alliance MP Phillida Bunkle benefited from this programme in 2009.”
Third, Hehir says that a court could find Ghahraman guilty, but “A judge can grant a discharge without conviction if they determine that the direct and indirect consequences of a conviction would be disproportionately severe compared to the seriousness of the offence.”
But, if somehow a conviction occurred, hypothetically it could lead to Ghahraman being losing her seat in Parliament. Hehir points out that under the Electoral Act, if an MP is convicted of any crime that carries a potential sentence of two or more years' imprisonment then, regardless of the actual sentence handed out, their seat would be automatically declared vacant.
6) How much does the scandal reflect badly on Ghahraman’s Green Party? Rightwing political commentator David Farrar has asked “who in the Greens knew about the incident, and kept quiet?” – see: The Golriz saga could imperil the Greens (paywalled)
Here’s Farrar’s main point: “I assumed the alleged incident was very recent. But it turns out to be from the 23rd of December - 19 days ago. What turns this from a personal matter to a political matter is the reported detail that the Greens were informed on the incident on the 23rd of December. If this is correct, it is shocking political management that this wasn't resolved within 24 hours. It is unthinkable that you would sit on this knowledge for over two weeks, and let it fester.”
7) Could the whole incident just be down to the Greens’ political opponents causing mischief? The Labour-Green aligned blog site, The Standard, have published an anonymous blogpost pointing to connections “between the original blogger of the shoplifting story, Marc Spring, and Dirty Politics key player Cameron Slater” – see: Dirty Politics 2024?
The blog post also points to journalists making much of the Ghahraman’s alleged shoplifting occurring in the Auckland Central electorate of Chloe Swarbrick, asking “Are we supposed to take an implication here?” And furthermore, in explaining what might have occurred to make the Ghahraman allegations come out, the author says “New Zealand society has an increasing problem of misogyny and racism” and the Green MP “is subjected to some of the worst misogyny and racism”.
8) Iwi are in the process of taking the new government to court on its orientation to the use of te reo Māori. Today Piripi Walker of Ngā Kaiwhakapūmau i Te Reo explains in The Post How the Government’s clampdown on the use of te reo is breaching the law (paywalled).
He says that although it is “healthy and desirable” that the Government is carrying out a once a decade “check and recalibration” of the official use of te reo, the actions leading on from this are illegal.
Under the Treaty of Waitangi, the Ministers have a duty to protect and promote te reo Māori, but instead they are “enforcing state sector suppression” of it, and this is damaging. Furthermore, “The scrapping of recognition of Māori language ability as a paid skill for public servants, while only paying them on measures of English language knowledge, is discriminatory – a removal of recognition.”
Ultimately, the health of the language will go backwards under the new administration: “RNZ and Television New Zealand will have licence to continue their less than stellar amount of use of te reo. The growth and development of the broader Māori language world and the Māori language economy is likely to falter. If the top leadership of the nation is against the language, and hammering in restrictions on its use, it will chill and cease to flourish.”
9) Chris Trotter wades into the culture wars today, and argues that Prime Minister Christopher Luxon should too, highlighting the latest transgender free speech battle in his column today: “An elderly woman, wearing a T-shirt testifying to the reality of biological sex differences – ‘Men aren’t women, even if you squint’ – incurred the wrath of a transgender member of the Ōtaki New World staff, who allegedly prevailed upon the supermarket manager to eject the elderly shopper and have her trespassed from the only supermarket in the small Kāpiti Coast town” – see: When something’s not quite right (paywalled)
Trotter argues that it’s the sort of incident that the populist PM Rob Muldoon would have jumped into, and that by contrast, although Luxon was elected on a populist wave he is yet to act in a populist manner on such issues. This is how Trotter believes Luxon should have responded to the Ōtaki New World culture war issue: “While reaffirming that all citizens, regardless of their station in life, are entitled to be treated with courtesy and respect, Luxon should also reaffirm emphatically the individual’s right to give voice to their opinions – or have them printed on a T-shirt – even if, by doing so, those opinions strike other citizens as wrong and/or offensive. He should take the opportunity to remind us all that there is no legal right to shut down speech that does not contravene the law. There is no right NOT to be offended.”
10) Former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is getting married tomorrow, and 1News’ Anna Murray has put together a good backgrounder on How Jacinda Ardern and Clarke Gayford's romance unfolded. However, Ardern’s marriage isn’t the only Labour wedding this weekend, rising star and potential future prime minister Kieran McAnulty is also getting married – to Ardern’s ex-press secretary, Gia Garrick, who is now Chris Hipkins’ new Chief Press Secretary. As Stuff’s Rachel Moore reports, the clash of timings is making it difficult for Labour colleagues to choose which one to attend – see: The clash of the political weddings as Jacinda Ardern and Kieran McAnulty tie the knot (separately).
Dr Bryce Edwards
Political Analyst in Residence, Democracy Project, School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington
NZ Politics Daily - 12 January 2024
GOLRIZ GHAHRAMAN SHOPLIFTING ALLEGATIONS, PARLIAMENT
Glenn McConnell (Stuff): Golriz Ghahraman's political career in 'danger', experts say she should front up
George Block and Raphael Franks (Herald): Green MP Golriz Ghahraman overseas as police investigate shoplifting allegations at Ponsonby boutique
Tom Hunt (Post): Green MP shoplifting allegations secret for more than a fortnight (paywalled)
Ryan Anderson (Stuff): MP Golriz Ghahraman's alleged shoplifting incident happened two days before Christmas
Liam Hehir (The Blue Review): When lawmakers become lawbreakers (paywalled)
Jacqui Van Der Kaay (Democracy Project): Shoplifting allegation damage already done
Leighton Heikell (Newshub): Golriz Ghahraman: Police confirm probe into alleged shoplifting at Ponsonby store
Oliver Neas (Guardian): New Zealand Greens MP Golriz Ghahraman steps aside from portfolios after shoplifting claim
The Standard: Dirty Politics 2024?
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Piripi Walker (Post): How the Government’s clampdown on the use of te reo is breaching the law (paywalled)
Chris Trotter (Newstalk ZB): When Something’s Not Quite Right (paywalled)
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): Woke Left vs Class Left 2024
The Standard: Our Resistance
Julie Jacobson (Post): The summer I was, for a brief moment, John Key’s wife (paywalled)
Charlotte McKenzie (1News): The Queen's special connection to New Zealand's Parliament
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